Statistics are everywhere, whether we’re talking about crime rates going down or high school graduation rates going up. It’s no different when it comes to websites, where we track metrics like page views, conversions, and bounce rates. Although we’d like to believe that we’re savvy about the numbers, we may not be as adept at interpreting them as we think. In his book Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman explains why.

One Mind, Two Systems

Kahneman characterizes our two thinking systems as fictional figures called System 1 and System 2. System 1 operates automatically to quickly generate complex patterns of thought. We use this system when we perceive that one object is farther than another one or when we detect an angry tone of voice. Its capabilities can be innate, such as recognizing objects, while others are learned, such as reading and understanding social situations. Whether they’re inborn or acquired, System 1 thinking requires little or no effort on our part.

In contrast, System 2 thinking is deliberate. This system handles operations that require our attention, and we don’t perform them well if we’re distracted. We use this system when we focus on one person’s voice in a crowded and noisy room or when we search our memory to identify a surprising sound. System 2 thinking involves making choices and deciding what to think or do.

The Division of Labour

Although they function in different ways, they work together to make sense of the world. Both systems are active when we’re awake; System 1 runs automatically while System 2 operates in low-effort mode, using a fraction of its capacity. System 1 generates suggestions based on impressions, intuitions, and feelings. System 2 will usually adopt these suggestions with little or no modification. Most of what we think originates with System 1, but System 2 has the final say. However, when System 1 runs into a situation that doesn’t fit into the model of the world it constructed, System 2 is activated to help by searching our memory to find a story that explains the anomaly.

This division of labour works well most of the time because System 1’s models of familiar situations and short-term predictions tend to be accurate. It’s good at automatically identifying causal connections and events—even when it’s not a solid connection. System 1 suppresses ambiguity and spontaneously constructs stories that are as coherent as possible, and System 2 will generally accept that answer without questioning it. This story construction can work to our disadvantage in considering statistics.

The Wrong Focus

We tend to focus on the story rather than the reliability of statistics. In one example, Kahneman cited a study of kidney cancer rates in 3,141 counties in the US. The counties that had the lowest rates were mostly rural, sparsely populated, traditionally Republican, and located in the Midwest, the South, and the West. If we try to explain this pattern, System 1 brings up facts and associations that support an explanation for System 2. We would probably examine the rural characteristic because we associate it with clean living (access to fresh food and no water or air pollution). This explanation makes more sense than trying to explain the lower rate in terms of political views.

However, the counties that had the highest kidney cancer rates also had the same characteristics (rural, sparsely populated, Republican, same locations). Again, we might focus on the rural lifestyle, which might mean poor access to medical care, a high-fat diet, and too much tobacco. For both situations, we look for a story that explains the cancer rate. We’re so focused on explaining how a rural lifestyle contributes to a lower or higher cancer rate that we miss the fact that these areas are sparsely populated; as Kahneman points out, smaller sample sizes tend to yield extreme results more often. Rather than questioning the validity of the statistics, we skip over that to try to explain the results.

Objective Results

So what does this mean for you? When it comes to your website metrics, do some preparation before you gather data. Here are a few tips to get you started:

1. Define your goals. The information you’re looking for will determine which metrics you’ll use. Are you trying to increase conversions? Do you want to make sure that your site is user-friendly? Are you looking for more information about your site visitors?
2. Decide which metrics to use. Before you begin measuring, make sure the metrics will answer your questions. For example, if you want to test the usability of your site, you should consider metrics such as the time taken for a task, the error rate, and the user’s subjective satisfaction.
3. Pick a tool that meets your needs. There are plenty of options out there, so do your research to find the best fit for your goals.
4. Make sure your statistics are reliable. Before you try to explain the statistics, make sure they have a solid basis. Are you looking at the right metrics? Is your sample size big enough? Is it composed of unique site visitors?

Remember that website statistics aren’t necessarily objective because you can interpret them subjectively based on your prior experiences and associations. If it’s your own site, you may be too close to what you’re measuring to analyze it. For example, you may be too invested in a design to objectively evaluate the metrics for the calls-to-action. Bringing in outside help to assess your site’s analytics can help ensure that your metrics are being measured and interpreted properly.

Image Credit: TEXample.net

When you run a digital marketing agency, the #1 query you get is: if I contract with you for search engine optimization, can you guarantee a first place ranking on Google?

What this tells us is that there are SEO providers out there who make such promises. As a result, there are clients who may achieve a top ranking – but not much else to show for their investment in SEO. The words “guaranteed rankings and traffic” have tainted the reputation of the industry. One of the most common tactics is for the SEO provider to select your keywords for you. They will select non-competitive keywords which your potential customers are unlikely to use. This makes it easy for them to deliver a high search ranking based on those keywords, but this does not deliver quality traffic.

Companies who spend a lot of money raising their ranking from #2 to #1 may lose sight of conversion or dismiss pay-per-click campaigns that could help their bottom line. It’s possible to reach #1 and achieve little or no impact. It depends.

Search Engines Warn Against Guarantees

Google provides a very instructive set of guidelines on search marketing that every SEO client should read. They make one very clear statement: No one can guarantee a #1 ranking on Google. Although this section specifically warns about providers who claim to have special relationships with Google (such as access to knowledge of the ‘secret sauce’ behind Google’s search algorithms), the warning comes straight from the company who would know better than anyone that SEO guarantees are not feasible. For one thing, this would destroy the integrity of Google’s organic search model, which is the entire basis of their business success.

Rankings are Dynamic and Unstable

A reputable provider knows that search results for the same search term can vary from hour to hour, and from location to location. It depends on which search engine server is fulfilling your query at any point in time; whether you log in to your personalized Google account or some other account; or which city you’re in when you type the query. These factors change the order of results, so making guarantees based on uncontrollable circumstances does not make sense.

Rankings are the Wrong Metric for Business ROI

This is the most important thing to remember. The reason companies want high search rankings is to increase business. Rankings are a means to an end, not the end. Rankings alone do not increase traffic or convert traffic into business.

The most basic metric of SEO success is quality traffic. If an SEO campaign shows a marked increase in search engine traffic, that’s one part of the success. The other part is whether visitors stay on the site and spend time on product and services information, play with demos or watch videos. This means SEO has brought the right audience to the site.

Traffic is good, but converting traffic into visitors who take action is the ultimate success metric. Conversion could mean buying a product, or for non-eCommerce sites, it could mean signing up for a newsletter, or downloading a white paper. When visitors land on a company’s website, how easy is it to find information? Is the content clear and informative? Is the website easy to navigate? Does it provide calls to action in visible, logical places? Does the company know which phone calls or emails to the sales department come through search and which ones through traditional marketing?

SEO can drive traffic but not conversion once the visitor lands.

This is where Analytics come into play. An SEO provider will always install analytics to determine where the traffic is coming from, which were the most popular search terms and so on. Analytics can also monitor user behavior on a website: which pages were most popular, how long did visitors spend on each page, when they abandoned the site and on which page. This helps determine how a website could be improved for better conversion. A website optimized for conversion is also part of the business equation. A high search ranking definitely helps, but by itself will not convert business for you.

So What’s a Reasonable Promise?

A good digital marketing provider will focus on increasing a client’s business. This means taking a consultative approach that is broader than merely SEO. Typically this means an audit of the client’s existing online presence that includes search, website effectiveness, social media, and even offline mediums that drive visitors to the website. This will generate recommendations which may include content strategy, website optimization, or a social media strategy. This takes a lot more work than just promising to submit a client’s website to all the search engines.

A client may not have the budget to implement all the recommendations, but the provider will be able to advise which components are the most critical.

The other factor is time. There will always be components that only the client can implement. This includes tasks such as freshening content and images, developing marketing content specific to the business, regular blog posts, and setting up offline mechanisms for tracking (different phone numbers for web queries and print ad queries is a good example). Fresh content helps boost search engine rankings; this is why regular blog posts are important. Social media also requires real commitment from the client. But a client may not have the staff or time to do this, so again, a good provider will explain how the various components impact the success of the plan and help the client prioritize.

Given factors such as: competing SEO campaigns, changing search algorithms, client resources and/or ability to implement, the only guarantee a digital marketing agency can give a client is: to provide the best advice possible for using the Internet to increase traffic and improve business.

Lead management tools, analytics, CRM systems. When you are juggling between traditional and Internet marketing, it seems as though you need sophisticated tools to track your results. But even If you’re not ready to implement contact management tools, there are some simple tracking mechanisms you can adopt.

Use different phone numbers

Use different phone numbers on your website, print ads, collaterals, and directory listings. When print ads ruled, it was good practice to use different phone numbers or email addresses on different ads and marketing collateral. Now that you’re online, it’s no different. This is particularly important if you are running SEO or other online campaigns. If you use the same phone number for both online and print ads for example, how do you differentiate?

Include social media

Update your online contact form to include social media. Social media is the new word-of-mouth. Your sales reps used to ask, “How did you hear about us?” Make sure the form on your “Contact Us” page asks this question and includes options such as Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, blog, and popular product review sites.

Evaluate, evaluate, evaluate

Consumer buying habits have changed drastically over the past five years. Even if you’re just using a spreadsheet, you need to document where your leads are coming from to avoid making decisions based on habit or subjective opinions. Consider these statistics:

• 74% of consumers rely on social networks to guide purchase decisions. (Gartner, July 2010)
• 62% of shoppers search for deals online before at least half of their shopping trips (Wall Street Journal, 2011)

For example, your marketing budget may be split evenly between print ads and Internet marketing. You find out, however, that 80% of your leads come from online sources. Tracking lead sources tell you which mediums are most effective, and allow you to re-evaluate where to put your efforts.

After 15 years of providing integrated Web solutions to businesses across Western Canada, Vancouver Internet marketing firm SmarttNet is setting out to help small and medium sized enterprises enter the profitable world of Web Analytics.

The recent addition of 4 Google Analytics Qualified Individuals to the company is a major expansion, but also a natural progression for SmarttNet, whose Chief Marketing Officer Martin Wong has always put hard numbers first when it comes to measuring the success of any marketing campaign.

“Web Analytics should be a cornerstone for any web strategy,” says Wong, “Especially with the economic downturn, it is absolutely essential for companies to measure and analyze any marketing activities. Web analytics can help you control your costs and optimize your return on investment by observing how your customers react and behave cross-channels.”

Google Analytics is a free and powerful tool that lets business owners measure website traffic and determine the effectiveness of their online marketing efforts. While it is free to install, small businesses stand to benefit greatly from the training and insights that Google Analytics Qualified Individuals can provide.

“Recent research from Forrester Research has shown that 75% of large enterprises consider Web Analytics technologies to be indispensable,” says Wong, “Through our expert implementation services and training programs, we want to bring the power of analytics to local businesses.”

SmarttNet is a full service Internet marketing firm with a long history of serving Vancouver’s business community. The company has roots as a connectivity provider and has since expanded to include co-location, web design, search engine optimization and social media marketing services.

With 4 Google Analytics Qualified Individuals in house, SmarttNet currently employs nearly ten percent of the 53 certified professionals in Canada.

For more information please contact

Jon Mandell
Writer and Media Specialist
jon.mandell@smartt.com
www.marketingsmartt.com